After the National Day holiday, I suddenly found that the market had become unrecognizable. Before the holiday, it was still a lifeless scene, and after the holiday it became full of enthusiasm.

　　 Raw materials are skyrocketing, dyeing factories have exploded, and freight is tight... Textile people are busy and happy. It is really not easy to want to see this situation in 2020 when the epidemic is raging.

　　 Demand or hype? this is a problem 

　　 demand?

　　The current market outbreak is actually not without foreshadowing. The domestic strict anti-epidemic measures have made the domestic epidemic situation controlled within a small range, and the domestic demand for textiles has basically returned to the normal level before the epidemic;

In terms of foreign trade, it can be seen from the previous news of the return of Indian orders that some countries in Southeast Asia and India have been unable to complete the international division of textiles very well due to the epidemic, and cannot deliver on time with quality and quantity. Although foreign trade demand has shrunk, Some rigid demand is still there after all, so some orders naturally flow to China.

However, this kind of backflow did not only start in October. As early as the first half of the first half of the international epidemic, the Southeast Asian textile industry had already suffered a devastating blow, but due to the overall increase in the number of orders in the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" market, This situation has entered the public's field of vision.

　　 However, when the hot market lasted for more than half a month, some different voices appeared on the market.

　　 Hype?

Mr. Yang, a fabric manufacturer who has been in the textile industry for more than 20 years, said that the current market may have a very heavy hype component, and the terminal demand simply cannot reach this level. Therefore, such a hot situation is impossible. It lasts and will fade away soon, so whether it is buying raw materials or taking orders, Mr. Yang is very cautious in his operations.

After experiencing overcapacity in 2019 and the new crown epidemic in 2020, textile people are generally accustomed to "taking one step and watching three steps". Now they are in the most prosperous market of the year. Textile people who hold similar views as Mr. Yang are also Quite a lot, and this can also be seen from the production and sales of polyester.

　　According to the data monitoring of China Silk Capital Net, after entering late October, except for October 21, the average production and sales of polyester filament yarns in the polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have changed from the previous week's continuous over 100% momentum, and dropped to about 70%. This is because the replenishment of weaving companies has basically ended, and on the other hand, it is also because the current cloth bosses have become more cautious about the purchase of raw materials.

　　 Why is it hype?

　　The epidemic is raging, cloth prices have doubled

　　Before the market became hot, news of all kinds of finished grey fabrics was seen everywhere, making the price of grey fabrics at a low price lower than the market price or even lower than the cost price. Take the recently very hot bladder cloth, the lowest selling price of 380T polyester yarn has been as low as 1.3 yuan/meter. After October, as the market became hot, the price began to skyrocket, and at this stage it has risen to nearly 2.4 Yuan/m, the price almost doubled.

　　 From the perspective of the global epidemic situation, as of October 24, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the world has exceeded 42.4 million. Many European and American countries continue to close cities, and demand has not yet fully recovered.

　　 Although demand will drive up prices, it is difficult to double the price of grey fabrics without fully recovering demand. Many traders in the market also stock up on the basis of buying up and not buying down. Therefore, rather than saying that the reason for the current hot market is the recovery of demand, it is more appropriate to say that the transfer of inventory is more appropriate.

　　 Keep the foreign order? Impossible and unnecessary

There is also a hot topic of hype recently, that is, foreign orders that flow to China. There is a voice in the market saying that as long as these orders are kept and not allowed to flow back, the market will continue to be popular, but this is not the case. possible.

　　 Although the global textile industry is constantly shifting from China to Southeast Asian countries and India, because the local area has no other advantages except labor costs, most of the products produced at this stage are relatively low-end products.

　　From this logic, most of the products included in the orders that flowed into China from foreign markets were basically eliminated by us, with low technical content and greater sensitivity to labor costs.

　　 In normal times, domestic textile companies also look down on the profits of these orders. It is just that because of the shrinking global demand in the epidemic, these orders have become "life-saving straws" that consume inventory and production capacity, so they have become sweet pastries.

　　 So once the epidemic gets better, this part of the list will inevitably flow back again. There is no way and no need to stay in China.

　　 For textile people, last month they were still thinking about how to survive. This month, the market suddenly turned into this, which really caught people off guard. However, whether it is a decrease in inventory or an increase in orders, it is a good thing at this stage.

　　 Therefore, take good hold of the present and face the future with caution. In any case, the most difficult time has passed.