In the next few years, the polyester filament industry or will ushered in a stage reshuffle, small-scale, backward production capacity gradually eliminated, some production enterprises turn to the downstream extension, such as POY production enterprises will support the loading machine, polyester factory supporting the loading machine, the scale of loom gradually increased, and the integration of the industrial chain development, is conducive to reducing costs and enhancing competitiveness, but also help the terminal textile exports, Therefore, polyester filament consumption is expected to continue to increase slightly.

However, according to Longzhong data, in 2024, the domestic melt direct spinning polyester filament is expected to have 1.65-1.95 million tons/year of production planning, compared with the past five years of high capacity expansion cycle, the current pace of production of polyester filament industry has slowed down significantly. However, the growth rate of demand in the terminal field has slowed down, and the problem of mismatch between supply and demand of polyester filament still exists.

Since 2017, the supply of polyester filament has grown rapidly, on the one hand, the restart of the pre-stationary device, on the other hand, the domestic high capacity expansion cycle has been opened, and the production capacity of polyester filament has been growing from more than 25 million tons to more than 40 million tons. However, the actual downstream consumption only increased from more than 20 million tons to more than 25 million tons, and the growth rate of demand is far less than the supply, which has also led to the continuous decline in the utilization rate of polyester filament production capacity in recent years. With the increasing contradiction between supply and demand in the industry, the pace of production of mainstream production enterprises has gradually slowed down, according to statistics, the domestic new production capacity of polyester filament is expected to be within 2 million tons in 2024, compared with the production scale of more than 4 million tons in 2023, the growth rate of polyester filament production capacity has slowed down significantly next year. Specifically, the new projects are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, of which the northern Jiangsu region is the heavy place of production capacity.

For 2024 market expectations, through the investigation of the downstream polyester filament industry, the following views are obtained: 2024 bearish or mainstream direction, accounting for 54%. In recent years, the overall sales of domestic "Double Eleven", Christmas and other promotional activities are less than expected, and the turnover of clothing and textiles has fallen to the second and third place. The weak global economy has led to a decline in residents' non-essential consumption expectations, and the real estate industry is also in a downturn, so the demand for home textiles is difficult to improve. The domestic supply continues to grow, the contradiction between industry supply and demand is prominent, and the market has a greater probability of decline.

Considering that the current supply and demand mismatch of polyester filament is difficult to solve, the polyester filament market in 2024 is expected to be slightly pessimistic, and in 2024-2028, the polyester filament market is in the stage of shock repair, and with the gradual withdrawal of backward production capacity, the market transaction focus is expected to rise in a narrow range. Specifically, with the gradual recovery of the economy, the demand for textiles and clothing will slowly increase.

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