“Golden, Three, Silver and Four” is nearing the end. This year’s “big events” such as the change in reserve cotton storage policies and Sino-US trade relations are frequent, and everyone is holding on to the currency, which has caused the market’s peak season to barely highlight its original The face. Looking forward to last year, the cotton yarn market was in short supply, cotton yarn prices continue to rise, and then look at this year, as of April 25, the domestic average price of C32S closed at 22,955 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton from last month.

Regardless of the current high yarn inventory or the decline in starting load, the current yarn market can be described as a mess. In the 17th year of April, it was in the peak season. Since the beginning of the month, there has been a wave of sales peaks. In the 18th year, although the peak season was “launched” lately, at the end of April and even in May, there was a “one yarn is hard to find” status quo. Looking back on the 19th year, since March, the yarn inventory has soared until the inventory days on April 25 exceeded 20 days, which is higher than the low season inventory in August of previous years. If we look at the profits of textile companies, this situation can be considered "reasonable."

Recently, due to the rising of upstream cotton raw materials in the future, coupled with poor downstream sales, cotton yarn prices have not risen and fallen, resulting in the recent "unprofitable" textile enterprises, and even suffered losses, the last time this happened Still 2018. At present, many textile enterprises can be said to be struggling, and some small-scale textile enterprises have experienced a reduction in production. The reason is that when the reserve cotton rotation policy has not landed, the bulls are eager to speculate on the “supply and demand gap” this year, but fortunately, on April 23, the “boots” of the national cotton dumping finally “landed”, although in quantity. It has shrunk, but at least compensates for the demand for raw materials in some low-count yarn markets.

The good news is that once the policy is implemented, the textile enterprises can plan to reduce the energy and cost caused by the uncertainty in terms of procurement, storage, and funds according to the policy. Secondly, the current real estate cotton in the market is currently in the market. After the consumption is completed, the low-grade cotton yarn is in short supply, and the release of the reserve cotton is actually a supplement. From the downstream consumption, the winter orders have higher demand for low-grade cotton, so that some small and medium-sized textile enterprises on the margin of closure will bring a chance to gasp. Third, the price of reserve cotton is expected to bring some improvement to the profit of textile enterprises; Fourth, due to the pricing principle, the weight calculation method of 50% of the internal and external cotton stocks will help to narrow the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, plus the reserve cotton. The advantage of various discounts in price, the low-yarn made with it can compete with the price of some imported yarns to improve the competitiveness of cotton yarn in China.

The worry is that due to the low-grade cotton gap, the willingness to participate is strong, and this time the dumping does not prohibit the participation of traders, it is expected that the transaction rate and price will not be low, especially in the initial stage of dumping, that is It is said that the price difference between the national reserve cotton and the market spot may not be as large as in previous years.

Looking at the downstream grey cloth market, the demand is still weak. On the one hand, the domestic sales are still weak. On the other hand, the end products such as export fabrics are affected by the increase in dyes and the reduction of tax rebates. The recent orders and profit levels are relatively poor, and are gradually reflected in cotton cloth and Cotton yarn, some weaving factories have seen a reduction in production, and there is no sign of improvement in the short term.

As of April 25, the FCY Index C32S discounted RMB spot price closed at 22,653 yuan / ton, a larger decline than domestic yarn. The spot yarn market in the early stage has experienced significant price cuts due to tax reduction and other issues. At the same time, the outer disk cotton yarn price increased by 10-15 cents compared with the previous year due to the rise in cotton prices and the change in the exchange rate of the rupee. The India-Pakistan cotton yarn with significant cost increase highlights the price/performance ratio of other countries' cotton yarn prices. China's buying has driven other high-cost cotton yarn prices, such as black yarn, and the overall price of the outer disk has shifted upwards. At present, the external disk order has been fully inverted with the spot. It is expected that the Zheng cotton and RMB exchange rate will not shrink significantly, and the market orders will gradually shrink. The subsequent dumping due to the small amount, the expectation of large purchases, the pressure on imported yarn will be far less than in previous years. At present, the mainstream import C32s price is around 22,000 yuan / ton, which is already the limit level of the cost of stock cotton yarn. Unless the yarn mill still faces losses after using the reserve cotton, it will be difficult to form pressure on the imported yarn spot, making the outer cotton yarn order continue to be low. .

In terms of futures, from the perspective of operating price, the price correlation between cotton futures and spot price has reached 0.71 since the listing, and the price correlation of cotton cotton yarn is 0.83, which proves that its price discovery function is basically effective. In addition, on March 4 this year, Zhengshang announced the revision of the relevant business rules for cotton yarn futures. It is believed that the future development prospects of cotton yarn futures will continue to improve. In fact, individual companies have “first tasted the sweetness” and used the opportunity given by the cotton yarn futures market to obtain excess profits. For example, in early June 2018, a textile company in Henan sold 200 tons of 32 carded cotton yarns at a price of 27,800 yuan/ton. In early September 2018, a Shandong enterprise bought 150 tons of 32 carded cotton yarns at a price of 23,100 yuan/ton. The two companies are delivering, and the buyers and sellers are happy.

Fujian Jinquan Chemical Fiber Products Co., Ltd. adheres to the spirit of Jinjiang people's love to fight, professional production: polypropylene recycled yarn, polypropylene hollow yarn, pp yarn, polypropylene light body yarn, polypropylene yarn and other products, and support to sample custom, fully satisfied Customer's individual needs.